Looking at this week’s tracking study, the momentum for Trump has continued. In particular North Carolina, which showed a major change of direction as Trump has now taken the lead in that state. Nevada has been added to the Presidential tracking study this week, with Trump ahead in Nevada. The Trump/Vance ticket leads in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Of the remaining targeted swing states Harris/Walz lead in Michigan, Pennysylvania and Wisconsin.
In the US Senate races there has been no major movement in the toss-up states. In the fight for the Senate majority the Republicans are leading in Montana and West Virgina. With those two wins they look to take control of the Senate, after the November election.
Presidential Tracking
State
Results
Net Result
Change From
Previous Week
AZ
Harris 45.5%
Trump 49%
Trump +3.5
Harris +0.5
Trump +0
GA
Harris 45%
Trump 49%
Trump +4
Harris +0
Trump -0.5
MI
Harris 48%
Trump 47.5%
Harris +0.5
Harris -0.5
Trump -0.5
NV
Harris 45%
Trump 48%
Trump +3
N/A
NC
Harris 45%
Trump 46.5%
Trump+1.5
Harris -3.5
Trump +3
PA
Harris 48%
Trump 47%
Harris +1
Harris -1
Trump +1
WI
Harris 48%
Trump 47%
Harris +1
Harris -1
Trump -0.5
Senate Tracking
State
Results
Net Result
Change From
Previous Week
AZ
Gallego 50%
Lake 43%
Gallego +7
Gallego +2
Lake +0
MI
Slotkin 48%
Rogers 41.5%
Slotkin +6.5
Slotkin +0.5
Rogers -0.5
MT
Tester 44%
Sheehy 49%
Sheehy +5
Tester -1
Sheehy +0
NV
Rosen 48%
Brown 39%
Rosen +9
Rosen +1
Brown +0.5
OH
Brown 47.5%
Moreno 45%
Brown +2.5
Brown -0.5
Moreno +2
PA
Casey 49%
McCormick 44%
Casey +5
Casey +1.5
McCormick +0
WV
Manchin 40%
Justice 49%
Justice +9
Machin +1
Justice +0
WI
Baldwin 49%
Hovde 44%
Baldwin +5
Baldwin +0
Hovde +0.5
Tracking Methodology: Survey Fever collects survey data for its publicly released tracking studies using a combination of methods. For each study, one third of the surveys are collected using automated dialing systems, one third utilize online methods and one third utilize live phone interviewers. Sample for the automated and live interview calling is derived from RDD created files. Sample for the online survey portion utilizes interviewer panels. Respondents are qualified by answering as registered voters and answering as likely or highly likely to vote in the upcoming election. Studies are conducted in English. All studies are fielded 3-4 days prior to the date they are released. Studies are balanced by gender, age, political party, ethnicity, congressional district and other factors. Independent and third-party candidate options are included in the questionnaires, but the results are not released in the findings unless a given candidate’s support exceeds 3%. Each study consists of 700 registered voters, with a MOE of 3.7, at a 95% confidence level.
Started in 2016, the Jack News provides a pragmatic look at political discussion with some satire. An independent journalistic endeavor, we have no ties to other media outlets or services. We write our own commentary and form our own opinions.
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