The Jack News sponsored SurveyFever.com weekly tracking study of the Presidential and US Senate races will run weekly until the Monday prior to the election. Today will be the last published study for this election cycle. Jack News and SurveyFever.com will continue to provide other tracking studies in the future.
The day before the election is here. Our SurveyFever.com tracking study followed the seven targeted swing states for President and the eight toss-up states in the US Senate. With the final study now completed we are ready to project winners for tomorrow’s races in our weekly tracking studies.
Donald Trump has gained strength each week that we have conducted the studies. That momentum continues. Trump should win the targeted swing states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Harris should hold onto Wisconsin. All of the targeted swing states are extremely close. The races in WI, MI and PA which are often referred to as the blue wall, are each within 1 percentage point.
Trump/Vance should now be able to win the Electoral College with 302 votes to Harris/Walz at 236. 270 is required to win.
The US Senate toss-up races are showing a change in the majority control of the US Senate. We are showing the Republicans gaining seats in Montana, West Virginia and Ohio. The Ohio Senate race changed leads just this week in the Republican’s favor. The Republicans look to gain control of the majority in the US Senate.
These polls are being sponsored by JackNews.net in connection with SurveyFever.com.
Presidential Tracking
State
Results
Net Result
Change From
Previous Week
AZ
Harris 47%
Trump 49%
Trump +2
Harris +1
Trump +0
GA
Harris 46.5%
Trump 49%
Trump +2.5
Harris +0
Trump +0
MI
Harris 48%
Trump 49%
Trump +1
Harris +0
Trump +1.5
NV
Harris 47%
Trump 48.5%
Trump +1.5
Harris +0
Trump +0.5
NC
Harris 47.5%
Trump 49.5%
Trump +2
Harris +0.5
Trump +1
PA
Harris 48.5%
Trump 49%
Trump +0.5
Harris +1
Trump +0
WI
Harris 48%
Trump 47.5%
Harris +0.5
Harris +0
Trump -0.5
Senate Tracking
State
Results
Net Result
Change From
Previous Week
AZ
Gallego 50%
Lake 47%
Gallego +3
Gallego +0
Lake +2.5
MI
Slotkin 49%
Rogers 45%
Slotkin +4
Slotkin +1
Rogers +0.5
MT
Tester 46%
Sheehy 50%
Sheehy +4
Tester +1.5
Sheehy +0
NV
Rosen 49%
Brown 43.5%
Rosen +5.5
Rosen +1
Brown +1.5
OH
Brown 47%
Moreno 47.5%
Moreno+0.5
Brown +0
Moreno +1
PA
Casey 49%
McCormick 46%
Casey +3
Casey +1
McCormick +0.5
WV
Manchin 39%
Justice 53%
Justice +14
Machin +0
Justice +3
WI
Baldwin 49%
Hovde 47%
Baldwin +2
Baldwin +0
Hovde -0.5
Tracking Methodology: Survey Fever collects survey data for its publicly released tracking studies using a combination of methods. For each study, one third of the surveys are collected using automated dialing systems, one third utilize online methods and one third utilize live phone interviewers. Sample for the automated and live interview calling is derived from RDD created files. Sample for the online survey portion utilizes interviewer panels. Respondents are qualified by answering as registered voters and answering as likely or highly likely to vote in the upcoming election. Studies are conducted in English. All studies are fielded 3-4 days prior to the date they are released. Studies are balanced by gender, age, political party, ethnicity, congressional district and other factors. Independent and third-party candidate options are included in the questionnaires, but the results are not released in the findings unless a given candidate’s support exceeds 3%. Each study consists of 700 registered voters, with a MOE of 3.7, at a 95% confidence level.
Started in 2016, the Jack News provides a pragmatic look at political discussion with some satire. An independent journalistic endeavor, we have no ties to other media outlets or services. We write our own commentary and form our own opinions.
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