For this week of the Jack News sponsored SurveyFever.com tracking studies we see the Michigan race for President tighten. Harris has a slight half a point advantage over Trump. In both Arizona and Georgia Trump has grown stronger to increase his lead over Harris beyond the margin of error. Harris does remain ahead in four of the targeted swing states Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina.
Republican Senate candidates continue to stay strong with their positions in Montana and West Virginia. Winning those two states could upset the majority balance to favor the Republicans in the Senate. Not much movement in the other targeted tossup Senate states that we are tracking.
Presidential Tracking
State
Results
Net Result
Change From
Previous Week
AZ
Harris 45%
Trump 49%
Trump +4
Harris +0
Trump +1
GA
Harris 45%
Trump 49.5%
Trump +4.5
Harris -0.5
Trump +0.5
MI
Harris 48.5%
Trump 48%
Harris +0.5
Harris +0
Trump +1
NC
Harris 48.5%
Trump 43.5%
Harris +5
Harris +0
Trump +0.5
PA
Harris 49%
Trump 46%
Harris +3
Harris +0.5
Trump +1
WI
Harris 49%
Trump 47.5%
Harris +1.5
Harris +1
Trump +0.5
Senate Tracking
State
Results
Net Result
Change From
Previous Week
AZ
Gallego 48%
Lake 43%
Gallego +5
Gallego +0
Lake +0
MI
Slotkin 47.5%
Rogers 42%
Slotkin +5.5
Slotkin +0.5
Rogers +0
MT
Tester 45%
Sheehy 49%
Sheehy +4
Tester +0
Sheehy +1
NV
Rosen 47.5%
Brown 38.5%
Rosen +9
Rosen +0
Brown +0
OH
Brown 48%
Moreno 43%
Brown +5
Brown -1.5
Moreno +0.5
PA
Casey 47.5%
McCormick 44%
Casey +3.5
Casey +0.5
McCormick +1
WV
Manchin 39%
Justice 49%
Justice +10
Machin +3
Justice -1
WI
Baldwin 49%
Hovde 43.5%
Baldwin +5.5
Baldwin +0
Hovde +0.5
Tracking Methodology: Survey Fever collects survey data for its publicly released tracking studies using a combination of methods. For each study, one third of the surveys are collected using automated dialing systems, one third utilize online methods and one third utilize live phone interviewers. Sample for the automated and live interview calling is derived from RDD created files. Sample for the online survey portion utilizes interviewer panels. Respondents are qualified by answering as registered voters and answering as likely or highly likely to vote in the upcoming election. Studies are conducted in English. All studies are fielded 3-4 days prior to the date they are released. Studies are balanced by gender, age, political party, ethnicity, congressional district and other factors. Independent and third-party candidate options are included in the questionnaires, but the results are not released in the findings unless a given candidate’s support exceeds 3%. Each study consists of 700 registered voters, with a MOE of 3.7, at a 95% confidence level.
Started in 2016, the Jack News provides a pragmatic look at political discussion with some satire. An independent journalistic endeavor, we have no ties to other media outlets or services. We write our own commentary and form our own opinions.
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