Today, marks the start of a weekly tracking study sponsored by Jack News. It will last until the November election. This study of the the most highly contested US Senate and swing Presidential races by state, should prove to be enlightening and entertaining. The jacknews.net is pleased to join surveyfever.com to conduct and publish these findings.
The Democratic party is leading in all targeted swing states that we are tracking in the Presidential general election. Georgia is showing Trump within the margin of error of Harris. All others are outside the margin of error.
In the targeted US Senate races the Democratic candidate leads, except in Montana and West Virginia. The Republican Sheehy leads Democrat Tester by two points, in a close race in Montana. In West Virginia the Republican Justice shows momentum with a five-point lead over the Democrat Manchin.
The current makeup of the US Senate is 51 Democrats which includes three independents that caucus with the Democrats and 49 Republicans. However, this Democratic advantage could change based on the outcome of the targeted Senate races that we are tracking. There are thirty-four seats up in 2024, but only a handful are targeted and considered a toss-up. We picked the top eight most contested. The Republican side would need to win two of these targeted races to change the majority control in the US Senate.
Presidential Tracking
State
Results
Net Result
Change From
Previous Week
AZ
Harris 47%
Trump 43%
Harris +4
N/A
GA
Harris 45%
Trump 44%
Harris +1
N/A
MI
Harris 47%
Trump 41%
Harris +6
N/A
NC
Harris 47%
Trump 40%
Harris +7
N/A
PA
Harris 47.5%
Trump 42%
Harris +5.5
N/A
WI
Harris 48.5%
Trump 42%
Harris +6.5
N/A
Senate Tracking
State
Results
Net Result
Change From
Previous Week
AZ
Gallego 46%
Lake 39%
Gallego +7
N/A
MI
Slotkin 44.5%
Rogers 39%
Slotkin +5.5
N/A
MT
Tester 44%
Sheehy 46%
Sheehy +2
N/A
NV
Rosen 44%
Brown 37%
Rosen +7
N/A
OH
Brown 49%
Moreno 40%
Brown +9
N/A
PA
Casey 46%
McCormick 38%
Casey +8
N/A
WV
Manchin 39%
Justice 44%
Justice +5
N/A
WI
Baldwin 48.5%
Hovde 42%
Baldwin +6.5
N/A
Tracking Methodology: Survey Fever collects survey data for its publicly released tracking studies using a combination of methods. For each study, one third of the surveys are collected using automated dialing systems, one third utilize online methods and one third utilize live phone interviewers. Sample for the automated and live interview calling is derived from RDD created files. Sample for the online survey portion utilizes interviewer panels. Respondents are qualified by answering as registered voters and answering as likely or highly likely to vote in the upcoming election. Studies are conducted in English. All studies are fielded 3-4 days prior to the date they are released. Studies are balanced by gender, age, political party, ethnicity, congressional district and other factors. Independent and third-party candidate options are included in the questionnaires, but the results are not released in the findings unless a given candidate’s support exceeds 3%. Each study consists of 700 registered voters, with a MOE of 3.7, at a 95% confidence level.
Started in 2016, the Jack News provides a pragmatic look at political discussion with some satire. An independent journalistic endeavor, we have no ties to other media outlets or services. We write our own commentary and form our own opinions.
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